Labour's culture war on regulators will backfire with voters
Our latest analysis shows the public are very receptive to strong protections, despite Labour's temptation to lean right
Back in October, in the early days of the new Labour administration, IPPR published a paper setting out five lessons from history which Labour should heed in order to usher in a decade of national renewal. The think tank compared the project to “sailing across an ocean,” warning that success depends not only on having a sturdy ship, but also on reading the sailing conditions.
Yet in the months since, the Government’s fixation on short-term signals - like rapidly shifting economic data and volatile polling - has seen them buffeted by the world around them and frequently changing course.
Reading the Currents
Two recent signals have had a particular impact on Labour’s direction of travel. While the economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, real GDP per head actually fell by 0.1%. Meanwhile, the latest Westminster voting intention poll from YouGov shows Reform UK surging to 26%, complicating Labour’s political calculations.
These immediate signals have prompted the Chancellor to pivot away from the Biden-inspired ‘Securonomics’ detailed in last March’s Mais Lecture, instead embracing deregulation in a desperate dash for growth. Simultaneously, Labour has sought to ape right-wing populist tactics - releasing footage of deportations and adopting Reform’s branding on social media.
Yet focusing solely on these short-term metrics risks missing deeper, more stable currents. As John Elledge reminds us, “at this point in the cycle polls have essentially no predictive power,” underscoring that the next general election might be as much as fifty-four months away. Quarterly GDP figures and forecasts are also subject to constant revision. In this light, the noise of weekly figures can distract from the enduring sentiments that truly shape political landscapes.
Beyond the Headlines: Deep Public Sentiment
New research by the TUC reveals that voter support for strong worker protections is remarkably consistent. Fresh polling of over 21,000 voters indicates that:
72% support banning zero hours contracts
74% back day-one sick pay
73% favour immediate protection from unfair dismissal
These figures cut across party lines - even among voters who might typically lean towards Reform UK there is clear support for robust protections. These findings mirror our comprehensive literature review - Worker Protections – what does the public think?. This in-depth review consolidates polling data and qualitative insights gathered since the 2024 general election, revealing that strong support for labour market protections is both widespread and enduring.
Alongside our literature review, we're also releasing our analysis of UK newspaper editorial coverage. This study examines the editorials of eight major newspapers across a seven month period since Labour took office, and reveals a dramatic disconnect between elite discourse and public sentiment.
While 69 editorials have framed worker protections as ‘burdens’, only 13 have presented them as necessary safeguards. This divergence suggests that elite discourse may be out of sync with the underlying, widespread support for stronger workplace protection amongst the public.
A Steady Course for Renewal
Historical experience teaches us that lasting national renewal isn’t achieved through reactionary shifts based on fleeting data, but on sustaining coherent narratives. As George Eaton notes, “[s]ome inside Labour suggest there’s an alternative narrative about fairness in cold times – a protective state that shields voters from the worst.”
He adds “Reeves’ earlier emphasis on ‘securonomics’ might, ironically, lend itself to such a narrative” but would sit uneasily with the relentless focus on growth. Similarly a recent FT editorial warned of an internal contradiction at the heart of government: it highlighted the danger that Labour’s insistence on economic expansion as the driver of its agenda risks clashing with elements of its own programme, notably the Employment Rights Bill, which could undermine the very growth it purports to champion.
Rather than facing a false choice between growth and protection, Labour has the opportunity to redefine its narrative. More in Common’s analysis shows that the Employment Rights Bill is among the party’s most positively received initiatives. A politics of protection would not only align with this strong public sentiment but would also offer a coherent vision that transforms Labour’s fragile mandate into a durable coalition for national renewal. It would also allow Labour to distinguish itself from Reform UK rather than emulating it, as the TUC have highlighted Reform MPs voted against the Employment Rights Bill at every stage - these vox pops in Clacton are well worth a watch.
Our new report with the Fairness Foundation - published tomorrow - sets out in greater detail why a strong narrative on protections must be at the heart of Labour’s plans for growth. From requiring employers to provide secure work, to ensuring people have access to decent housing and live in a healthy environment, we argue that regulation can shape our economy in ways that improve both social and economic outcomes - rather than acting as a brake on growth.
We’re therefore calling on the government to adopt our ‘Fair Growth Duty’ and abandon the false choice between growth and standards. By adopting a strong and consistent narrative on regulation, Labour can boost growth, raise living standards and deliver on their plan for long term renewal. More to come on this next week.
Steering by a Consistent Vision
To navigate these turbulent waters, three guiding principles emerge:
Look Beyond the Headlines: Focus on deep, stable public attitudes rather than reacting solely to short-term polls and economic fluctuations.
Build, Don’t Pivot: Consistency is crucial—constant policy shifts undermine the long-term coalition-building needed for renewal.
Tell a Coherent Story: Linking individual policies to a broader narrative of protections could forge a resilient, enduring vision.
For those interested in further details, the full research is available at:
Fair Rules, Fair Growth: how strong regulation can drive growth and opportunity (published tomorrow)
As Labour moves forward, its challenge is to harness these deeper currents and steer a steady course.